Different meter.
Heat Pump vs. Gas Heating ROI Calculator
Compare what it costs to deliver one million BTUs from your furnace or boiler against an electric heat pump, then see annual savings, payback period and 10-year net savings.
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- Cost per 1 MMBTU, both ways
- Instant payback timeline
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Fuel price, system efficiency and COP in — cost per 1 MMBTU both ways, annual savings, payback period and 10-year net savings out, live as you type.
Open the calculator- Cost per 1 MMBTU, both ways
- Instant payback timeline
- Private, in your browser
Heat pump vs. gas heating ROI
Live - local onlyThe heat pump costs less to run than natural gas. Payback in 19.5 years.
Both figures cover the same 50 MMBTU of delivered heat.
- Natural Gas: $1.40 per Therm x 80,000 BTU delivered = $17.50 per MMBTU.
- Heat pump: $0.16/kWh x 3,412.14 BTU x COP 3.5 = $13.40 per MMBTU.
- Both systems are sized to deliver 50 MMBTU of heat a year.
- No maintenance, fuel-price drift, or federal tax credits are included.
- All calculations run locally in your browser.
Estimate for planning, not a quote. Cold-climate heat pumps lose capacity below 5°F and often run with backup resistance heat, which lowers real-world COP. Everything runs locally in your browser.
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Set your current system
Choose natural gas, propane, fuel oil or baseboard electric, then enter your fuel price and AFUE rating.
Configure the heat pump
Pick the standard, cold-climate or geothermal preset — or enter your own COP or HSPF2 rating.
Read the ROI
Cost per 1 MMBTU both ways, annual savings, payback period and 10-year cumulative savings.
Benchmark Heating Cost Comparison per 1 Million BTUs
Standard US default rates: natural gas at $1.40 per therm, propane at $2.80 per gallon, fuel oil at $3.80 per gallon and electricity at $0.16 per kWh.
| Fuel Type | Standard Efficiency | Fuel Unit Cost | Cost per 1 MMBTU Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | 80% AFUE | $1.40 / Therm | $17.50 |
| Natural Gas | 95% AFUE | $1.40 / Therm | $14.74 |
| Propane | 80% AFUE | $2.80 / Gallon | $38.25 |
| Propane | 95% AFUE | $2.80 / Gallon | $32.21 |
| Fuel Oil (#2) | 80% AFUE | $3.80 / Gallon | $34.30 |
| Fuel Oil (#2) | 95% AFUE | $3.80 / Gallon | $28.88 |
| Baseboard Electric | 100% (resistive) | $0.16 / kWh | $46.89 |
| Heat Pump — Standard | COP 2.8 | $0.16 / kWh | $16.75 |
| Heat Pump — Cold-climate | COP 3.5 | $0.16 / kWh | $13.40 |
| Heat Pump — Geothermal | COP 4.5 | $0.16 / kWh | $10.42 |
Every figure is produced by the same formulas the calculator above uses. A heat pump's row is an operating-cost comparison, not a fuel purchase: it converts electricity into delivered heat at the stated COP.
The Physics & Math Behind Heat Pump Efficiency
Heating systems are compared on delivered heat, not energy purchased. The conversions this calculator uses are: 1 Therm of natural gas = 100,000 BTU, 1 gallon of propane = 91,500 BTU, 1 gallon of fuel oil (#2) = 138,500 BTU, 1 kWh of electricity = 3,412.14 BTU, and 1 MMBTU = 1,000,000 BTU.
A furnace or boiler burns fuel, so only part of that BTU content reaches the rooms: Delivered BTU = raw BTU × (AFUE / 100). An 80% AFUE gas furnace turns 1 Therm into 80,000 BTU of heat, which is why a $1.40 therm costs $17.50 per MMBTU delivered.
A heat pump moves heat instead of creating it, so its efficiency is expressed as COP = heat output ÷ electrical input. A COP of 3.0 means one kWh of electricity (3,412.14 BTU) delivers about 10,236 BTU — roughly 300% efficiency. Seasonal ratings use HSPF2, and the average COP is estimated as COP ≈ HSPF2 / 3.412 (an HSPF2 of 9.5 is about COP 2.8).
Rated figures come from laboratory test procedures: AHRI 210/240 covers unitary air-source heat pump and air-conditioner performance ratings, and ENERGY STAR's Cold Climate criteria identify units that keep delivering useful heat at low outdoor temperatures, tested at 5°F (−15°C). Field performance also depends on your climate, ducts, backup resistance heat and how you set the thermostat.
The result is a planning estimate, not financial or engineering advice. Maintenance, financing, fuel-price changes and tax credits are excluded unless you enter them in the net installed cost.
The formulas
Delivered BTU per unit = Raw BTU per unit × (AFUE % / 100)
Cost per 1 MMBTU = (1,000,000 ÷ Delivered BTU per unit) × Fuel price
Heat pump cost per 1 MMBTU = (1,000,000 ÷ (3,412.14 × COP)) × Electricity price
Payback (years) = Net installed cost ÷ Annual savings
Worked example: natural gas at $1.40 per therm and 80% AFUE costs $17.50 to deliver one million BTU. A cold-climate heat pump at COP 3.5 on $0.16 per kWh costs $13.40 — about 23% less. Over a 50 MMBTU season that is $875 against $670 a year, a $205 saving.
Frequently asked questions
Are heat pumps cheaper to run than natural gas in cold climates?
Yes, modern cold-climate heat pumps can be cheaper to run than natural gas, but the math depends entirely on your local utility rates. A cold-climate heat pump typically operates with a Coefficient of Performance (COP) of 2.0 to 3.0 even when temperatures drop to 5°F (-15°C). Because it transfers heat rather than burning fuel to create it, it yields 200% to 300% efficiency. However, electricity is generally more expensive per unit of energy than gas. You will save money if the 300% efficiency gain outweighs the higher cost per kWh compared to natural gas per Therm.
What is the difference between HSPF2 and COP?
Both metrics measure heat pump efficiency, but over different timeframes:
- COP (Coefficient of Performance): A snapshot metric. It measures the ratio of heat output to electrical input at one specific temperature.
- HSPF2 (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor 2): A seasonal average. It calculates total heat output over an entire winter divided by total electricity consumed.
- Formula to convert: To estimate average COP from an HSPF2 rating, divide the HSPF2 by 3.412.
How do Federal Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits affect heat pump payback periods?
The IRA reduces the upfront cost of an eligible heat pump installation by providing a 30% tax credit, up to a maximum of $2,000. Payback period is calculated by dividing your net installation cost by your annual energy savings. By lowering the net cost by $2,000, the IRA tax credit directly accelerates your break-even point. For a home saving $400 a year by switching from heating oil to a heat pump, the IRA credit cuts 5 full years off the ROI timeline.
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